Market Snapshot: Impacts of the Fort McMurray wildfires on Canadian crude oil production

Release date: 2016-05-12

Reports on the Fort McMurray wildfires estimate between 1.0 and 1.5 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of oil sands production was cut earlier this week. This represents roughly 40 to 65 per cent of total oil sands production and 25 to almost 40 per cent of total Canadian crude oil production. As of May 12^th production is gradually returning.

In 2015, Canada produced an average of 3.91 MMb/d of crude oil. Of this volume, nearly 2.38 MMb/d came from the oil sands near Fort McMurray, representing roughly 60 per cent of total Canadian production. Non-oil sands production in western Canada^Footnote 1 accounted for 1.35 MMb/d or roughly 35 per cent of total Canadian production. Production in eastern Canada (primarily from east coast offshore) accounted for 0.18 MMb/d, or roughly five per cent of total Canadian production.

Bitumen from the oil sands can be extracted in two ways. Deposits near the surface are developed using conventional mining techniques, while deposits that are too deep to mine are developed using in situ methods such as steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). Combined oil sands production has increased substantially, from 1.07 MMb/d in 2005 to 2.38 MMb/d in 2015, with the portion attributable to in situ methods increasing during that time frame from 41 per cent to 49 per cent.

The majority of Canadian crude oil production is exported. In 2015, total Canadian crude oil exports hit a record 3.05 MMb/d, with most of these exports destined for the United States. Remaining Canadian production is consumed in Canadian refineries, including major Alberta facilities designed to refine synthetic crude oil and diluted bitumen from the oil sands.

Date modified:

2023-11-28