Market Snapshot: Electricity trade trends affected by recent low precipitation
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Release date: 2024-08-07
Since mid-2023 there has been a noticeable decrease in electricity volumes exported to the United States (U.S.) from Quebec, and increased electricity imported from the U.S. Pacific Northwest to British Columbia (B.C.). In 2023, Quebec exported 13.3 terawatt hours (TWh) compared to 25.9 TWh in 2019, and B.C. imported 16.8 TWh in 2023 compared to 11.2 TWh in 2019 (Figure 1). Depending on precipitation levels and provincial demand, surplus Canadian electricity can be exported to U.S. markets. Precipitation levels (rainfall and snowfall) have been abnormally low across Canada for the past two years, leading to a change in normal trade volume trends due to the lower hydroelectricity generation. Besides precipitation and weather, electricity trade flows are also affected by operational requirements, grid maintenance, strategic requirements, and other impacts to supply and demand in both the origin and destination markets.
Figure 1: Monthly Electricity Trade Volume by Province (2019 to 2024)
Source and Description
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER) – Commodity Statistics – Electricity – Tables 2A and 2B – Export and Import Summary by Source (Destination), Authorization, and Exchange Type; CER International Power Lines Dashboard
Description: The figure has side-by-side area graphs for each province showing electricity exports and imports monthly, from January 2019 to March 2024. The set of graphs show the federal electricity trade data for each province from west to east. This dataset includes British Columbia (B.C.), Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia.
Quebec, Ontario, B.C., Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador export the most electricity. B.C. imports the most electricity.
Exports:
In 2019, in total, Quebec exported 25.9 TWh, Ontario exported 17.0 terawatt hours (TWh), Manitoba exported 7.7 TWh, B.C. exported 6.8 TWh, New Brunswick exported 1.4 TWh, and Newfoundland and Labrador exported 1.1 TWh. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia each exported less than one TWh.
For comparison, in 2023, Quebec exported 13.3 TWh, Ontario exported 13.9 TWh, Manitoba exported 7.2 TWh, B.C. exported 6.6 TWh, New Brunswick exported 5.5 TWh, and Newfoundland and Labrador exported 1.6 TWh. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia each exported less than one TWh.
Imports:
In 2019, in total, B.C. imported 11.2 TWh and Alberta imported 1.2 TWh. Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia each imported less than one TWh.
In 2023, B.C. imported 16.8 TWh, Manitoba imported 2.0 TWh, Quebec imported 1.3 TWh, Alberta imported 0.9 TWh. Ontario, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia each imported less than one TWh.
A map inset shows the total infrastructure capacity and international power line voltages for each province trading with the U.S. This data is available from the CER’s International Power Lines Dashboard and Open Government dataset.
In 2023, B.C. generated 56.1 TWh of electricity, and it was a net electricity importer of 10.2 TWh from the U.S. (a deficit of 18% of its production). In comparison, in 2023, Quebec generated 195.6 TWh of electricity, and its net electricity exported to the U.S. was 12.1 TWh (or 6% of production). In 2023, Ontario generated 156.3 TWh of electricity, and net electricity exported to the U.S. was 13.5 TWh (or 9% of production). In 2023, Manitoba’s electricity producers generated 33.3 TWh, while net electricity exported from Manitoba to the U.S. totaled 5.2 TWh (or 16% of production).
Big Hydro Producers in Canada
Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, and B.C. are Canada’s major electricity exporters, in large part due to their significant hydroelectricity generation capacity and electricity transmission infrastructure. Hydroelectricity generation capacityFootnote 1 is highest in:
![Aerial view from airplane of a water dam by Hayward Lake taken near Mission, east of Vancouver, British Columbia.](/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2024/images/market-snapshot-electricity-trade-trends-effected-by-recent-low-precipitation-figure-01.jpeg)
- Quebec: 41 gigawatts (GW)
- B.C.: 16 GW
- Ontario: 9 GW
- Newfoundland and Labrador: 8 GW
- Manitoba: 6 GW
- New Brunswick: 1 GW
Collectively, central Canada exports the most electricity. Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba sell to large, competitive power markets in the U.S. Northeast and Midcontinent regions. However, the amount of electricity exported from central Canada is a fraction of the total demand in the corresponding U.S. receiving markets.
Recent Electricity Price Trends
Electricity import prices can be higher than export prices, and this is particularly true in central Canada. There are fewer financial and strategic benefits for wholesale buyers in Quebec and Ontario to import relatively higher priced electricity from U.S. power trading regions like ISO New England and New York ISO. As reported to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER)Footnote 2, between 2019 and 2023, the price paid by companies in Quebec to import wholesale electricity from the U.S. averaged $78.49 per megawatt hour (MWh) compared to wholesale export prices from Quebec to the U.S. averaging $47.81 per MWh. Between 2019 and 2024, the price paid by companies in Ontario to import wholesale electricity from the U.S. averaged $57.15 per MWh, while wholesale export prices from Ontario to the U.S. averaged $41.77 per MWh.
B.C. is the leading electricity importer in Canada. There are many months its imports surpass exports or come close. Provinces tend to import electricity if it is cheaper than generating it, if there is a generating shortfall, or if demand is higher than anticipated. In B.C.’s case, its trade flows with interconnected utilities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are generally driven by electricity market conditions and operational needs. The electricity prices during low demand periods in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are generally lower than power generated in the province.Footnote 3 B.C.’s hydroelectric system can respond quickly to supply and demand changes. As such, B.C. can conserve water in its reservoirs for periods of high demand while importing at lower prices to partially meet domestic demand when it is a lower cost option.
In Manitoba’s case, it has limited need to import wholesale electricity from outside the province because it already has significant generation volumesFootnote 4 relative to its demand. Manitoba exports over 15% of the electricity it produces to the U.S.
Who Trades Electricity in Each Province?
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) publishes statistics on international electricity exports and imports by provincesFootnote 5 and U.S. states. It also reports electricity traded by each regulated company in its commodity statistics. The companies that import and export the most electricity to and from Canada are often provincial crown corporations.
Many of these power utilities are vertically integrated, meaning they distribute, market, and trade most of the electricity they generate. Generally, the main companies trading electricity to and from Canada are the trading and marketing divisions of provincially owned utilities—electricity trade volumes from independent marketers and resellers are significantly lower.
Provincially-owned power generators with electricity trading subsidiaries include BC Hydro, SaskPower, Manitoba Hydro, Ontario Power Generation, Hydro Quebec, NB Power in New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, a division of Nalcor. Their electricity trading subsidiaries include:
- Powerex Corp. and the B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, both belonging to BC Hydro
- NorthPoint Energy Solutions Inc., a subsidiary of SaskPower
- the wholesale power trading and marketing division of Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board
- the wholesale trading division of Ontario Power Generation; and Hydro One Networks, a subsidiary of Ontario’s Hydro One transmission division
- the wholesale trading division of Hydro Quebec; and HQ Energy Marketing Inc., a subsidiary of Hydro Quebec
- New Brunswick Energy Marketing Corporation
- Nalcor Energy Marketing Corporation, a subsidiary of Nalcor
In Ontario, the electricity sector is characterized by a competitive wholesale electricity market with many privately-owned companies operating as major exporters, rather than power generation subsidiaries.Footnote 6
Data on the electricity volumes exported by marketers and resellers is also available in the CER’s monthly commodity statistics (electricity exports, Table 2A).
For related information, the CER compiles data about electricity generation and capacity in the data appendices of its long-term energy outlook projections in Canada’s Energy Future.
Additionally, the CER compiles information from multiple sources about electricity generation, consumption, capacity, and more in: Provincial and Territorial Energy Profiles.
The voltages and capacities of international power lines can be found on the International Power Lines Dashboard and Open Government dataset.
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