Market Snapshot: End of winter update - natural gas inventories and production are high entering the spring season
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Release date: 2024-05-29
March 2024 ended with 744 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas in storage in Canada; 44% higher than the end of March last year, and 55% above the average of the last 5 years. Natural gas storage levels are relatively high entering spring this year for two main reasons:
- a mild winter
- high natural gas production
Natural gas storage balances supply and demand of natural gas. Typically, gas is withdrawn from storage in winter when natural gas heating demand is high and injected into storage in spring, summer, and fall when heating demand is lower. This winter was characterized by a strong El NiñoFootnote 1, which meant warmer temperatures during the season than is average. Homes and businesses needed less natural gas for heating, so less natural gas was withdrawn from storage.
Figure 1: Year-over-year natural gas in storage
Source and Description
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER)
Data: Canadian Gas Storage, Estimated [XLSX 1,220 KB]
Disclaimer: The CER estimates daily natural-gas inventories in storage to fill the information gap between the last data point Statistics Canada publishes in their monthly inventories of gas in storage and the present day, based on publicly available daily storage and receipt delivery information on connected pipelines and storage inventory data. Users should be cautious and use this dataset to indicate directional changes in storage rather than representing a true, absolute volume of gas in storage on any particular day. The CER provides these data estimates for informational purposes and cannot ensure their absolute accuracy. Use this data with the understanding that any associated risks are the responsibility of the user.
Description: This chart displays daily natural gas storage levels from January to December in 2016 and from 2020 to 2024. One chart shows inventories for western Canada, and another chart shows inventories for eastern Canada. In both charts, 2024 inventories are above inventory levels in the last four years over the first three months. In western Canada, 2016 inventories slightly exceeded 2024 inventories in March.
Strong natural gas production in western CanadaFootnote 2 this winter also contributed to current storage levels. Despite a dip in production in January because of a cold snap, which froze many wells shut, production continued at a level above the previous 5 years from November 2023 to March 2024Footnote 3. Production in western Canada reached an average of 18.4 Bcf/d over the 2023/2024 winter season, compared to 17.8 Bcf/d in 2022/2023, and 16.8 Bcf/d in 2021/2022. For comparison, production was 15.6 Bcf/d in the 2015/2016 winter season.
Figure 2: Natural gas production 2019-2024
Source and Description
Source: Canada Energy Regulator (CER) and monthly production data from western Canadian provinces, including Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia.
Data: Western Canada Natural Gas Production Estimates [XLSX 144 KB]
Disclaimer: The CER estimates daily natural gas production in western Canada to fill the information gap between when western Canadian provinces publish their monthly production data, and the present day, based on publicly available pipeline receipt data. In the event of any discrepancies between provincial published data and these estimates, users should assume provincial data is more accurate. Sudden dips in production in the summer are likely related to pipeline maintenance and outages while, in the winter, are likely because of well freeze offs during cold snaps. The CER provides these data estimates for informational purposes and cannot ensure their absolute accuracy. Use this data with the understanding that any associated risks are the responsibility of the user.
Description: This dashboard displays two charts. The first is a bar chart with the total yearly production in trillion cubic feet from 2019 (5.7 trillion cubic feet) to 2023 (6.5 trillion cubic feet). The second is a line chart that shows daily production from January to December from 2019 through 2024. The trend is generally increased production over that time period.
Canada, typically in the spring, summer, and fall, produces more natural gas than it uses domestically. Any excess gas is either exported or stored. Market participants such as gas distributors and utilities will store some of this excess gas in the summer to prepare supply for their customers in the following winter. Producers, traders, or marketers might store gas in the summer hoping to sell it to distributors, power generators, or other consumers during the winter, when demand and prices are higher. By shifting this excess supply away from periods of lower demand and toward periods of higher demand, storage helps balance gas markets and reduces price volatility for both producers and consumers. Storage can also form an emergency reserve in the event of natural disasters or other disruptions to gas supply.
Exports of natural gas flow on pipelines and from LNG (liquefied natural gas) export facilities. Pipelines that export natural gas from the Western Canada Sedimentary BasinDefinition* (WCSB) have been running near full capacity for the past few yearsFootnote 4. Key export points for the WCSB include the East Gate and West Gate on NGTL, the Huntington point on the Westcoast/Enbridge BC pipeline, and Elmore on the Alliance pipeline.Footnote 5 To address this, the market has increased export capacity by expanding some pipelinesFootnote 6 regulated by the Canada Energy Regulator. This has relieved some bottlenecks, though constraints may still happen during the spring, summer, and fall, when major pipelines undergo maintenance, increasing the importance of access to storage. LNG exports are expected to rise with the start of new commercial operations of LNG Canada in 2025Footnote 7 and potential expansions or new LNG terminals in British ColumbiaFootnote 8.
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