Market Snapshot: Existing projects largely responsible for continued production growth from Alberta oil sands

Release date: 2024-11-13

Over the last decade, oil sands production continues to increase, with new production records regularly being set. As of May 2024, bitumen production averaged 3,460 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2024 compared to 3,110 Mb/d in 2019, and 2,530 Mb/d in 2015^Footnote 1. This growth occurred despite only a few new projects being built since 2015 (Figure 1). The last mine that was completed was Suncor’s Fort Hills mine in 2018, and the last in-situ project completed was Harvest Operations Corp.’s BlackGold project in 2018. There are currently no new mines under construction and one new in-situ project, Blackrod, which will be operated by International Petroleum Corp. and is scheduled to be completed in 2026^Footnote 2.

Figure 1: Average Daily Oil sands production from January 2015 to May 2024

Oil sands projects typically do not reach full production capacity in their first year of operation—some can take up to a few years. However, the ramp up of new stand-alone projects has only accounted for a small portion of production growth since 2018. Most production increases have come from existing projects either through continued ramp up, expansions, or operational improvements.

Unlike conventional oil production, oil sands projects have commercial lifespans that can last several decades, with low production decline rates. This longevity provides companies the opportunity to apply different methods to optimize their facilities^{Footnote 3Footnote 4} over the course of a project’s life to maintain or increase production. In some cases, companies will incorporate new technologies that may not have been available when the project started. For example, injecting non-condensable gasses into in-situ reservoirs frees up steam to be deployed elsewhere in the field which can lower a project’s emissions intensity^Footnote 5 and increase a project’s total production.

Nearly all oil sands mines operating prior to 2015 have increased production since that time. Of these projects, Imperial Oil’s Kearl mine saw the largest increase, adding 114 Mb/d to reach 281 Mb/d in 2024. Likewise, of the 10 largest in-situ projects that existed prior to 2015, eight increased production by 2024. A full summary of the changes in production from all oil sands mines and the 10 largest in-situ projects from 2015 to 2024 can be found in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Annual Daily Average Production from oil sands mines and top 10 in situ facilities in 2015, 2019, and 2024

Date modified:

2024-11-12