Market Snapshot: How important are new power-generating technologies for future electricity systems?

Connect/Contact Us

Energy Information RSS Feed

Please send comments, questions, or suggestions for Market Snapshot topics to snapshots@cer-rec.gc.ca

Release date: 2024-12-11

Canada’s Energy Future 2023 (EF2023)Footnote 1 projects that achieving an electricity system that grows rapidly and decarbonizes will require many clean power-generating technologies. These include emerging technologies that have not yet been commercialized (not yet fully deployed economically at scale). In the EF2023 projections, three emerging power-generating technologies, which complement established clean technologies like wind and solar, play pivotal roles:

  1. Natural Gas power plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (NGCCS)—low-carbon
  2. Nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMR)—carbon-neutral
  3. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)—carbon-negative

One of the net-zero scenarios explored in EF2023Footnote 2 is the Global Net-zero scenario (GNZ). In GNZ, Canada’s electricity system is projected to become net-zero by year 2035 and net-negative afterwards. Advancements and adoptions of these new technologies stand to play a key role in achieving a net-negative electricity system.

Figure 1: Electricity capacity and generation projections for new and matured technologies, EF2023 global net-zero scenario

Source and Description

Source: EF2023

Description: The area graph shows projected trends for electricity generation and electricity capacity from 2020 to 2050, by different power-generating technologies in the GNZ scenario. The matured technologies are shown in grey scale, and new technologies are depicted in colour. Both electricity capacity and generation increase two-fold between 2020 and 2050. The share of generation from new technologies increases to 17.5%, and the share of capacity from new technologies increases to 21.2% by year 2050.

The new technologies NGCCS, SMR, and BECCS are dispatchable energy sources, meaning that power can be generated from these sources when required due to demand increases. These new technologies complement wind and solar energy which are variable renewable energy (VRE) sources—supporting in balancing supply and demand. In the GNZ scenario VRE’s generating capacity in Canada increases by almost 7 times between 2020 and 2050. Hence, NGCCS, SMR, and BECCS play a key role in providing both clean technology and dispatchable energy solutions, in net-zero scenarios.

In the GNZ scenario by 2050, the three new technologies account for 17.5% of total national electricity capacity (8.2%, 7.3%, and 2% respectively for NGCCS, SMR, and BECCS) (Figure 1). The share of electricity generation from these three technologies is projected to be even greater at 21.2% of the total national power generation (4%, 11.9%, and 5.3%, respectively for NGCCS, SMR, and BECCS). This differs from wind and solar, whose share of capacity is higher than the share of generation.

For perspective, total electricity generation by the new technologies in the year 2050 in the GNZ scenario is around 275,000 GWh, which is equal to two times Ontario’s electricity demand in 2020.

BECCS is only projected to contribute around 2% of capacity by 2050. However, BECCS makes a much larger impact in terms of emissions in net-zero scenarios because it’s a carbon negative technology. Atmospheric CO2 removed by BECCS helps drive the electricity system to be net-negative after 2035 in the GNZ scenario. The electricity system has 5.7 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent negative emissions in 2035 and reaches 36 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent negative emissions in 2050, in the GNZ scenario. The electricity system’s negative emissions offset remaining emissions from other sectors by 2050 in this scenarioFootnote 3.

What is the status of these technologies in Canada?

Canada is a leader in Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology. There are currently five active commercial scale CCUS projects in Canada and more than 20 proposed projects in various stages of developmentFootnote 4. The Phase 2 expansion of the Glacier Gas plant CCS project in Alberta will be the first NGCCS power generation facility in Canada and is expected to be online by 2026Footnote 5.

Canada is a world leader in nuclear technology, including SMRs. Currently there is one major SMR project in advanced development in Canada, and four other pilot and demonstration projects being plannedFootnote 6Footnote 7Footnote 8. In addition, four provinces and the federal government have shown policy and financial support for SMR technology through various incentivesFootnote 9Footnote 10.

BECCS on the other hand has not had any projects in the electricity sector in CanadaFootnote 11. However, BECCS projects related to power generation have seen great interest and uptake in European countries. The first pilot BECCS project was developed in the UK in 2018Footnote 12, with commercial scale operation recently being approved by the UK government at the same facilityFootnote 13. The first full scale power generation BECCS facility is expected to be operational in Norway by 2026.Footnote 14

Certain incentives may be available to these new technologies through a variety of means, including for example the federal government's Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit and the CCUS Investment Tax CreditFootnote 15.

Date modified: